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Breaking Down the 2023 NBA Draft

This year’s NBA Draft will cap another season of exciting basketball. Perhaps no team better exemplifies the importance of drafting than the new world champion Denver Nuggets. They famously drafted the best player in the world right now, in Nikola Jock, in the second round and have built a roster heavily dependent on the draft with stars Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. slipping to their laps. This year’s class is headlined by someone many see as the future best player in the world in Victor Wembanyama. The crop feels a little underwhelming in terms of star talent but is definitely rich and deep in players who can win teams world championships. Every year that I do this, I hate ranking players more and more but understand that many get their best understanding of a draft’s talent through this flawed way. Every team in the NBA should have different big boards and rankings than the next, taking into account their needs. 

Victor Wembanyama

What is there left to say about Wemby? You have probably heard it all at this point and the hype is real (and very well-deserved). He truly is something the world has never seen as a 7 foot 5 alien who can do anything on the court and better than those a foot shorter than him. What has impressed me most about the kid is how he has handled the endless talk and comparison. There is almost a LeBron James-like quality to him in that he does not fear scrutiny. In fact, he almost enjoys and prefers it. Every one of his games seemed to have been televised nationally despite taking place in France and he tried to put on a show every time. As a result, he probably took a lot of shots he otherwise wouldn’t take, hurting his shooting numbers etc. Victor probably has already bought a house in San Antonio and learned their playbook since the lottery took place last month. Congrats to the Spurs for the biggest draft gift in twenty years. They now have their new Tim Duncan and he might be better.

Brandon Miller

Brandon has also been on the headlines a lot the last several months but for less than ideal reasons. Involved in an absolutely tragic event, Miller was at the wrong place at the wrong time. After viewing as many videos and interviews I can on his thoughts regarding his situation, I am less worried about his character than I was when news first broke out. In fact, I love this kid’s personality and have no concerns whatsoever. Basketball-wise, like Wemby, Brandon showed up when eyes were on him the most. The Charlotte Hornets shouldn’t make this harder than it has to be. He had a tremendous freshman year leading Alabama under bad circumstances and just needs to keep his circle strong, which is hard for someone as outgong as him but the same can be said about any star player (see: Morant, Ja). He moves fluidly on the court and does not get the credit he deserves for his defensive intensity despite being a number one option on his team. He hits shots and is PG13-like. Brandon, like Paul George, can absolutely be the second best player on a championship team with his polish and skillset. Prayers to him and his mother who is battling breast cancer.

Scoot Henderson

Scoot is probably not happy that I have him below Miler but there are more questions than I would like here. The good news is he resembles Russell Westbrook. The bad news is that he resembles Russell Westbrook. His intensity is unmatched and he knows what he wants to be. Like Russ, he looks like a football player and can jump out of a gym. He also loves pull up shots and is not the best three point shooter. He can play reckless but his teammates love him. But is his play style suited for winning? He also didn’t really dominate the G-Leagues in his second season like some might assume. None of this is to say he won’t become an All Star. He will. But how much is that worth? Is it worth building your entire system around? Maybe so. That is the question the Hornets and Blazers have to answer and there are no easy answers. Personally, I would say Miller and LaMelo would be a terrific duo in Charlotte and that if I’m the Blazers, I take Scoot no matter what Dame says. Lillard will help him out because that’s his character. For how long? Who knows but Scoot and Shaedon Sharpe is an insane backcourt of the future. His family keeps him humbled and is a fantastic support system.

Cam Whitmore 

There are reports that Whitmore is falling and he himself has acknowledged this and how weird the process has been for him. I am not sure people understand that he is one the youngest prospects in the draft and already has many elite traits. The guy is still 18 years old so let’s dream on him, at least for a little. Even if you don’t, it seems likely that Cam ultimately becomes an uber-athletic wing like an Aaron Gordon, who just won a ring. He will probably get to that point a lot faster. Even if he doesn’t, there are skills here that play right away. He is 230 pounds and is not going to be bullied or pushed around like most rookies. He has no issue playing physical defense and probably drives to the rim less often than he should and he does so a lot already. This will only get easier in the NBA and open space. He comes from a program in Villanova that keeps producing talent but doesn’t get the respect it deserves for doing so. He has a mean streak to him that I like and doesn’t take disrespect very well. Is he one of the best interviews? Probably not but you’re drafting him to play basketball and that he can do with no problem. The Rockets should pick him up at number 4 and watch him take off.

Jarace Walker

If Cam is a little closed off, Jarace is the exact opposite. I don’t think I have ever seen him not smile. He has an infectious personality and turns into another person when he defends. He is a happy and joyous kid who seems excited about the process of becoming a great NBA player. He was behind a lot of the University of Houston’s success and can be a great switch and multiple position defender from 1 to 4. He can even play some small ball five and is improving his outside shoot by the day. It continues to look smoother as he works on it and it will eventually be less of a liability than it is and become a strength. His carrying cards be on defense his rookie year, where he can make an instant impact, especially with the Detroit Pistons at 5. The Pistons youth movement is going to fun to watch with Monty at the helm and is a perfect situation for Walker, where he will play next to other tremendously built big men like a Jalen Duren. Coming up with a comp is hard here but in terms of impact, don’t be surprised if he’s more like Scottie Barnes than we think.

Amen and Ausar Thompson 

I am grouping these two together not because they are twins, although that would be a fine reason, but because I am not sure of what to make of either of them. Also, its not that I think they will be busts either. I see both as among the safest players left but it’s far more difficult to project their ceilings. It does not help that they played for Overtime Elite, a garbage league where the competition is not much better than some high school programs. It is just disappointing because the duo are certainly smart enough to have known that their development would not be helped, but only hindered, playing against players below their level. It also does not helps matters to learn that they are 20 years old. 20 is not old by any means, trust me, but Amen and Ausar are still raw. They will require significant developmental work and patience wherever they go. What is interesting, however, is that although they produced almost the same exact stats they could not be more different as players and also people. Amen undoubtedly has the higher ceiling and is the better athlete but is more of a guard than a wing like his twin Ausar is. Ausar is trying to rebuild his shot whereas Amen’s is better but Ausar wins defensively where he can stick on anyone. Amen is far less reserved and can be a secondary ball handler, with potential as a scorer. Ausar can be an elite roleplayer. If I picked in the top 5, I would be scared of choosing 2 unknowns. Amen would fit beautifully in Orlando and Ausar fits in Indiana. They should easily become the best pair of twins in NBA history.

Jalen Hood-Schifino

Like the Thompson twins, Jalen Hood-Schifino is a bit older than most one and does but this shows in his game that is made for the NBA. The Wizards have blown it up after trading Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis and apparently Chris Paul, so there is literally a blank canvas in DC. They do not have a young star or talent, with the closest being Deni Avdija, and could use a bucket getter to go along with newest Wizard Jordan Poole. JHS could play with Poole and operate as the team’s point guard. He makes the right plays and reads most of the time and is deadly in the mid-range. He needs to improve from three but his shot is pure and can be seen from the fact that he shot nearly 80% from the line. JHS was empowered by Mike Woodson to operate in a offense the way he wanted and is a tough shot maker like Jamal Murray despite not being the most natural point guard. Murray is proof you don’t have to most explosive or most bursty as long as your basketball IQ is high and it seems to me JHS’ is. Having him #8 is an aggressive ranking compared to other sites.

Anthony Black

Like Jalen Hood-Schifino, Anthony is also a big lead guard and can really pass. What puts him below, in my opinion, is his shot. Luckily, he does not depend on one but he obviously needs to have one that is useable and I still think he will get there. JHS is a solid defender but Black is heads and shoulders better at that. Black also appears to be a player who is genuinely fun to play and share the court with. There are moments where he looks awfully similar to Josh Giddey, and dare I say it, LaMelo Ball. Surely, there is some of the Ball influence in Black’s game as its not just their shared resemblance and hair. He is a fun-loving kid who enjoys taking the court and helping his teammates succeed at basketball. He is to become a fan-favorite with his energy and hustle, and is a particularly good fit in Utah that has guys who like the ball in Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen or even Colin Sexton. A pick and roll combo with him and Walker Kessler could be a sight to behold, along with lobs he’d toss him.

Dereck Lively II

Lively is soaring up draft boards and it is easy to see why when we look at what he offers versus the numbers he put up at Duke.   He is an incredible athlete with quick feet and size as a center, and is as confident as a non-scorer can be in his entire game. He’s done well in the pre-draft cycle and process, insisting that he has a bag of unopened tricks that he can unleash at the next level. Whether one believes that or not, it is undeniable that he has impressed at workouts and pro-days showcasing a 3 point shot. Dereck also is a really sneaky passer, even if he’s not Bam Adebayo. Should he even become half that player, he is more than worth a tenth selection and be just what the Mavs need. He conducts himself like a ten year veteran and is very mature.

Gradey Dick

Gradey has more than a case to go tenth instead of Lively but won’t fall too far below this pick. The Magic at 11 present a perfect fit, even though he perfectly fits almost every team in the NBA since everyone can use a lights out shooter. He has the prettiest form in the class and exudes a calmness with how he conducts himself and handles his business, not unlike one of the game’s biggest breakout stars – the undrafted Austin Reeves. With the Mavericks shopping their tenth pick, if I were a playoff team, literally any playoff team, I would be calling to jump ahead of the rest to go and get Dick. Franz Wagner and him would be difficult to guard from three every single game and be a nightmare if/when their shots are falling as they usually do. Shooting is always at a premium – just look at the Miami Heat. He doesn’t mail it in defensively either and can grab some steals

Bilal Coulibaly 

For as much as a known commodity Gradey Dick is and will be, Bilal is completely the wild card of this draft. He is the youngest player in this draft class and probably would have more fanfare surrounding him if Victor Wembanyama weren’t literally standing in his way as a teammate for Mets92 in France. Coulibaly can jump with the best of them and is as dynamic as it gets. He was able to carve himself out a nice role on a European team, which is no small feat, and he did whatever was asked, whether it be locking up on defense, cutting a certain way etc. He is certainly a high risk prospect but also high reward too because the ceiling is just scary with someone having his frame. He is a nice draft and stash for Oklahoma City or play for them.

Cason Wallace

Until recently, I did not think much of Cason Wallace to tell you the truth. However, hearing him speak and be so aware of how he is perceived was eye-opening to me. He knows every criticism or knock on his game but is quiet about it and has a big chip on his shoulder. I don’t want to be the guy who contributed towards such a narrative and see that he is driven. That’s half the battle already. He is the safest player in the draft and is going to be in the league for a decade with how smart he is and hard he works as possibly the best guard onball defender. If he surprises like I now think he will, he would just be the latest of many Kentucky Wildcats that were held back by Coach Cal. The Raptors would be the best team possible for him and it would not shock me at all to see him be their next Kyle Lowry.

Taylor Hendricks

Taylor goes a good deal higher than 14 in most rankings and mock drafts and I can understand why. Like Wallace right before him, he is a safe pick who will be in the league for a long time. However, I don’t see as big an upside which is why he is here. Still, I want to give him the respect a lottery pick deserves by putting him here. I love him as a person and what I have heard but don’t like his jumper all that much. If I did, I would place him in a similar category or conversation as I did Jarace Walker as most do by having them be interchangeable on their boards. Expect him to go a great deal higher than this and have a career like Jonathan Isaac, who I also wasn’t a huge fan of coming out.

Nick Smith Jr.

Ranked the best freshman in the country before the start of the year, someone is going to get an absolute bargain who can score at will. Smith played with and through injuries all season.

GG Jackson

Based on talent alone, Jackson could easily go 6 instead of 16. He made the wrong choice to reclassify and play college early but there’s plentu to like as he looks the part of a superstar still.

Jett Howard

You might have heard of his dad but he is going to become a great player, spot up and movement shooter in his own right with next level height and size that reminds me of Cam Johnson. 

Leonard Miller

Everyone seems to speak about every G-League player but him. Leonard is not one to advertise himself and is quiet but is an automatic double-double, as well as a potential per-minute star.

Noah Clowney

Miller was overshadowed by sharing a team with Scoot and Noah was overshadowed by playing with Brandon Miller. He has lottery talent and could easily become a stretch 5 in due time.

Brice Sensabaugh

Brice might be the most overlooked and underrated player in this entire class. As a freshman, he averaged 24 PPG per 36. He is out of shape like Paul Pierce was but Brice can flat out score.

Jordan Hawkins

Jordan is one of my favorites this year and what a year it’s been for him after leading UConn to a title. Like Gradey, he is also someone playoff teams should scramble to grab as a shooter.

Kobe Bufkin

Kobe Bufkin is a combo guard who came back for a second season in Michigan and has done well for it. He loves to score but rebounds well for his size. A doppelgänger of Jordan Poole.

Keyonte George

Keynote can score in bunches but there isn’t a shot he wouldn’t take. You hope he can be more of a playmaker and play more consistent defense going forward. There’s still a lot to like at 19.

Kris Murray

Keegan Murray surprised a lot of people like the Kings this year and Kris can do the same, albeit without the shooting prowess. He produces and does not need the ball to be an impact player.

Tryce Jackson-Davis

Similar to Lively, Jackson-Davis insists that he can shoot now and has been able to pass it a little. I don’t think that he even has to shoot with the numbers he put up and his athletic blocks. 

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin has starred at Santa Clara since leaving Illinois and could start at point guard for teams. His floater is one of the most unguardable shots in the draft and he can shoot threes.

Ben Sheppard

At Belmont, the 6’6 senior Sheppard was a man among boys. The shot is pictureesque and he knows how to get open off ball. He is a scorer and catch and shoot artist like a Quentin Grimes. 

Colby Jones

Colby is much more than a 3 and D and was amazing for Xavier. His play is infectious and his shot is as silky smooth as anyone. He’s in a great shape and can run for days as well as a pros pro.

Maxwell Lewis 

Maxwell can score at all three levels. Like Jones, there are a lot of intangibles to work with. He is a gym rat, special athlete and has a great wingspan. He gets unfairly knocked for not winning.

Jalen Slawson

Slawson is what you call a deep sleeper as he went to Furman. He’s certainly on the old side at 24 but he is a playmaker, Swiss army knife who can do everything well and excels in transition.

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